Fieldstone Books — Shop Viability & Direction

01 / THE READ

What the numbers say

The current site does not clear the bar — and the fix the numbers point to is a rent structure change, not more sales effort. At stable sales (~$31K/month) and the current rent ($9,200/month), the owner's draw runs at roughly a third of the floor she named. The gap is structural, not seasonal.

It is a rent problem, not a demand problem. Sales have held within 4% for three years while rent rose 40%. At the Corner Site's quoted rent, the same sales clear the draw floor without any growth.

The stay-or-close binary is false. Between "make this site work" and "close the shop" sits a real option space — six paths that combine and sequence rather than compete. The map below is the resolution of this read: the recommendation, rendered spatially.

02 / THE MAP

How the paths combine

THE VISUAL CODE

Solid frame, angled — the concurrent first stage: paths 1–3 run now, together; none blocks another.

Stepped arrow — the escalation route. It fires on failed tests, not on elapsed time.

Oxblood hatch — held warm: real, priced-nothing-yet, waiting behind the stated condition.

Bracket beneath — the floor under the stage: an orderly close that lets the tests run calm.

Faint + dashed — context, deferred by design; not an equal-weight tile.

Level cards on an angled grid — every node names a path and its role; each opens that path's page.

03 / THE INSTRUMENTS

Confidence — two kinds

Two kinds of confidence appear here and never sit on the same scale: confidence that a move is the right next move (a relative judgment across options) and confidence that a path clears the bar (an absolute prediction that depends on an unsigned lease and an uncharged membership list).

KIND A — RIGHT NEXT MOVE

The first stage, over the alternatives

A relative judgment across the option space — which move is right to run next, not whether it will work.

WEAKER CASEEVENSTRONGER CASE

~70%
that the combined first stage — move + memberships + co-tenancy — is the right next move over the alternatives.The hatched block carries the "~": a judgment call, read in coarse steps.

SCALE A — RELATIVE · COARSE STEPS · NOT COMPARABLE TO SCALE B

KIND B — CLEARS THE BAR

Draw floor sustained 12 months

Absolute predictions that the $3,800/month draw holds for a full year — each read against the same 0–100 rail.

The combination — move + memberships + co-tenancy

~50–55% — genuinely uncertain; rendered as a range because that is what it is.

The residual is almost entirely the unsigned lease and the uncharged membership list.

The Corner Site move alone — no memberships, no co-tenant

~35%

Staying at the current site as-is — the baseline

~10%

Confidence in the "not viable as-is" read itself: ~85%.

SCALE B — ABSOLUTE · 0–100 RAIL · NOT COMPARABLE TO SCALE A

UNSET

OPEN DECISION — THE MEMBERSHIP FLOOR

floor: paying members by March 1 — the owner's to set.

The number of paying members that counts as "the program works." Discussion has ranged 60–120, but no value here is a default or a suggestion. The escalation condition above reads against this floor once it is set.

04 / THE PATHS

Path index

1 The Corner Site move 1,100 sq ft at ~$4,800/month, four blocks north — the load-bearing test: a five-year term. STAGE 1 2 The membership program Paying members at $15/month; 62 pledges collected at the register, none yet charged. STAGE 1 3 Café co-tenancy Splitting the Corner Site with Greenway Café — the shop keeps mornings, gains evenings. STAGE 1 4 The staff co-op sale Three staff have independently raised buying in; nothing priced yet — behind the escalation condition. HELD WARM 5 Wind down with intent A defined orderly close (~$28–34K walk-away) that lets the tests run calm rather than desperate. THE FLOOR 6 The second location Right idea for a different shop — real only after a full year above the draw floor at the new site. DEFERRED

05 / THE DOORS

Behind this page

DOOR I

The rent arithmetic

What each site costs against each membership level — and why no row at the current rent clears the draw floor.

OPEN → DOOR II

The held tensions

The living-room tension — the shop as the neighborhood's free civic space vs. the owner's pay — and the co-op timing tension — telling the staff too early reads as an exit announcement; too late, and the interested staff may have moved on. Held, not resolved, with what would settle each.

OPEN → DOOR III

What this can't see

The landlord's actual intentions, the neighborhood's five-year trajectory, and whether the owner still wants the shop at all — taken as given here, not established.

OPEN →